|
Register for
FREE
ACCESS
to the CTA Database, Research Reports and In-Depth
Qualitative Analysis
click here | |
|
Submit your Managed Futures program, update your
monthly performance
click here | |
|
|
|
Hard Core Intelligence on
Alternative Investments |
|
|
Thought Leadership Papers
Mr. Frankfurter, MARI's Chief Investment Strategist, has
collaborated on a top ten Social Science Research Network (SSRN)
working paper entitled "Is Managed Futures an Asset Class? The
Search for the Beta of Managed Futures." Links to this working
paper and other academic research related to managed futures,
commodities, derivatives and financial theory is available below:
Archive of Thought Leadership Papers:
Letters to
Senator Joe Lieberman
and
Senator Susan M. Collins
Mack Frankfurter, Chief Investment Strategist (May 19, 2008)
The purpose of this letter is to provide a unique perspective in
regards to speculation in the commodity futures markets, as well as
outline some concerns regarding the current environment which has,
of late, resulted in widespread debate regarding commodity prices.
Justice Felix Frankfurter once said, "Judicial judgment must take
deep account of the day before yesterday in order that yesterday may
not paralyze today." It is with this thought in mind that I present
my viewpoint.
The Mysterious Case of the Commodity
Conundrum, Securitization of Commodities and Systemic Concerns
Mack
Frankfurter, Chief Investment Strategist (April 28, 2008)
The mysterious case of the commodity conundrum is sure to elicit
passionate debate on either side of the equation—is the commodity
boom due to speculation or fundamentals? Futures and forward
contracts are intrinsically different instruments than securities
which are derived from the capital markets (e.g., fixed income or
equities). This is under-appreciated. Let me make clear here: I am a
proponent of the speculators’ role. The function of speculators is
required to facilitate the hedging utility and price discovery
mechanisms. In my humble opinion, the career of commodity futures
speculation is an honorable trade if practiced honorably. And in
that context, yes, a reflexively driven fundamental case can be made
for rising commodity prices. However, we cannot be sure of this
unless we have a level playing field of properly regulated markets.
Is Managed Futures an Asset Class? The Search for the Beta of
Managed Futures
Frankfurter, Mack and Accomazzo, Davide (SSRN eLibrary, December 31,
2007)
In comparing modern finance with behavioral finance, Dr. George
Frankfurter, Lloyd
F. Collette Professor Emeritus Louisiana State University, and Dr.
Elton McGoun, Professor of Finance Bucknell University, in their
article "Resistance is Futile: The Assimilation of Behavioral
Finance," make the following astute observation which can
similarly be applied to our analysis of the various commodity asset
pricing models we investigated: "What has happened is that we've
used these assumptions for so long that we've forgotten that we've
merely made assumptions, and we've come to believe that the world is
necessarily this way." Likewise, our working paper, "Is Managed
Futures an Asset Class? The Search for the Beta of Commodity Futures,"
suggests that the models we examined have inherent shortcomings when
analyzing the commodity futures markets. Available at SSRN:
http://ssrn.com/abstract=1029243
Resistance is Futile: The Assimilation of
Behavioral Finance
Frankfurter, George M. and McGoun, Elton G. (Journal of Economic
Behavior & Organization, 2002, vol. 48, issue 4, pages 375-389)
In the science-fiction television and film series Star Trek: The
Next Generation, there is a species called the Borg, a collective of
techno-organic drones acting in concert as a single organism. In
their pursuit of perfection, they roam the galaxy in search of other
species, whose capabilities they acquire through a process of
assimilation turning their captives into Borg and effectively
absorbing their knowledge into the hive mind. Modern finance itself
appears to be something of a techno-organic life form, with inspired
theoretical and empirical work combined with, and both augmented and
circumscribed by, complex mathematics, massive data sets, and
esoteric statistical tests. And the current encounter between modern
finance and behavioral finance is not unlike the encounters between
the Borg and the Starship Enterprise. Modern finance is attempting
to assimilate behavioral finance, adding its capabilities, including
a smattering of experimental methods, but without experiencing any
fundamental changes in its own methodology ―just
as the Borg assimilate humans, acquiring their knowledge but
destroying their humanity and turning them into drones.
Alpha, Alpha Whose got the Alpha?
Schneeweis, Thomas (University of Massachusetts, October 5, 1999)
Alice in Alice in Wonderland asked
the Cheshire cat what path to take. The cat answered where
she wanted to go. Alice replied that she had no idea. The cat
responded, then it really doesn't matter which path you take.
Managers must know which path they wish to take; that is, alpha as a
marketing devise or as a measure of comparable risk/return
performance. If managers wish to define alpha to fit their own
marketing purpose and use alpha to sell a product, it is
understandable. However, one should never mistake a 'marketing'
alpha from a relative-performance alpha. If the manager can chose
[sic] asset positions with a higher return (but the same ex ante
risk) to some comparable naive investment position then that person
can be said to achieve a positive alpha. Managers may say that
investors' never care about relative return, but only absolute
return. But performance alpha is all about properly measured
relative return. Unfortunately, we have no simple method for
establishing this benchmark except under vary restrictive
situations. However, at least we do know that because any investment
decision involves some risk, the riskless rate is probably not
appropriate as a benchmark. How much return should be added and what
method should be used to determine the incremental return to add to
the risk free rate to obtain the appropriate return comparison is
still open for discussion. Despite the difficulty it is an attempt
worth the effort.
Managed Account Research actively promotes the advancement of
managed futures by sponsoring qualitative research. To subscribe to
our research, contact us at (800)308-1495. Questions and suggestions
can be directed to
Research.
Register for
FREE ACCESS
to the CTA Database,
Online Research Reports and In-depth Qualitative Analysis on
approximately 250 Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA), managed futures
and alternative investment programs.
click here
|
| |